Meta is preparing to enter the prediction market business with a standalone app that would use artificial intelligence to create, recommend and resolve bets on real-world events, according to internal documents reviewed by NPR.
The project, which is being built under the names Arena and FBForecast, would mark Meta’s effort to compete with fast-growing platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Two employees familiar with the plans said CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed a team to develop the app, though they were not authorized to speak publicly. Meta declined to comment.
The internal materials describe a product that would not rely on cash wagering at launch. Instead, users would receive a daily virtual supply of play money to place yes-or-no bets on future events. The documents do not spell out exactly which categories of events Meta plans to include.
The app is expected to lean heavily on Meta’s large language model, Llama. According to the documents, the AI system would generate questions based on trending topics and produce personalized market suggestions for users. It would also determine whether market outcomes were resolved, with the final call made by AI in near real time.
That approach would distinguish Meta’s product from leading prediction market platforms, where users typically risk real money on the outcome of elections, economic reports, sports and other events.
Meta has tried prediction markets before. In 2020, the company launched Forecast, a crowdsourced app that let users make predictions about world events, including the pandemic. That effort ended two years later. The new project is described in the internal documents as a rebuild of that earlier app.
One reason cited for shutting down Forecast was the cost and labor involved in manually curating questions. The new AI-driven system appears designed to reduce that burden by automating both question creation and market resolution.
The plan also suggests Meta may be taking a staged approach to a potentially sensitive regulatory environment. Gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach, who follows the sector, said launching without cash stakes could give the company time to seek regulatory approval and wait for the legal landscape to become clearer. He described the industry as being in legal limbo, with more than 30 lawsuits pending over the legality of prediction markets.
Prediction markets have gained momentum in recent years, drawing heavy trading volumes and new competitors. Kalshi and Polymarket have become the best-known names in the space, while companies including DraftKings, FanDuel and Truth Social have also announced related products or plans. A newsletter tracking the sector says more than 70 companies have launched prediction market projects or services.
At the same time, the industry continues to face questions about market manipulation, insider trading and whether betting on future events can distort the very outcomes being predicted. Federal rules governing the sector are also in flux, with the Trump administration moving to rewrite oversight policies.
Meta’s entry would add one of Silicon Valley’s largest players to that mix. The company says more than 3 billion people use at least one of its apps every day, but it has struggled to build standalone products that catch on. According to the documents, employees will test a prototype before any public release on iPhone and Android. No launch date has been set.